Just imagine you’re standing in the grocery store, cart in hand, dreading the total at checkout for your Thanksgiving feast. But here’s some surprisingly good news—for the third year running, that holiday meal is getting cheaper. According to the American Farm Bureau Federation’s 40th annual survey, feeding 10 people the classic Thanksgiving spread will cost you about $55.18 this year, down 5% from last year.
That breaks down to roughly $5.52 per person, which honestly sounds pretty reasonable for a meal that’ll have everyone unbuttoning their pants by dessert. The survey, which has been tracking Thanksgiving costs since 1986, measures the same traditional menu year after year: a 16-pound turkey, stuffing, sweet potatoes, dinner rolls, frozen peas, cranberries, a veggie tray, and pumpkin pie with whipped cream.
This consistency gives us a real apples-to-apples comparison over nearly four decades. And while the current price represents the lowest since 2021, it’s still above pre-pandemic levels. So yes, things are improving, but we haven’t exactly turned back the clock to 2019.
The Star Of The Show Gets Cheaper
The real hero of this year’s savings story is the turkey itself. That centerpiece bird, weighing in at 16 pounds, now averages $21.50—that’s just $1.34 per pound, representing a whopping 16.3% drop from last year. Turkey alone accounts for about 44% of the total meal cost, so when its price plummets, your entire grocery bill feels the relief.
What’s behind the cheaper bird? It’s actually a bit of a strange situation. Turkey farmers raised only 205 million turkeys in 2024, the lowest number since 1985, largely because Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza devastated flocks. You’d think fewer turkeys would mean higher prices, right? But demand also dropped—Americans are eating about a pound less turkey per person than last year. With both supply and demand falling, but demand dropping faster, grocery stores are running aggressive promotions to move their inventory.
They’re essentially taking a hit on turkey prices to get you through their doors. Other bright spots include dinner rolls, down 14.6%, and stuffing, both benefiting from lower wheat prices. Half the items on the survey list saw price decreases this year.
When Mother Nature Fights Back
But not everything in your Thanksgiving basket got cheaper. Fresh vegetables are telling a much different story. Sweet potatoes are up 37%, and veggie trays have skyrocketed more than 61%. The culprit? North Carolina, which grows most of America’s sweet potatoes, got hammered by hurricane damage this year, disrupting supply chains and devastating crops.
Frozen peas jumped 17%, and whole milk increased 16.3%. Weather events, labor shortages, and natural disasters combined to push these prices higher, even as other items declined. It’s a reminder that farming operates on razor-thin margins, facing volatility that most of us never see when we’re just grabbing items off the shelf.
The dinner table might be more affordable overall, but Mother Nature still gets her say in what we pay.
